Researchers at Hewlett Packard have claimed that Twitter, the popular microblogging service can predict Box Office behaviors of any movie with a high accuracy.
The research data includes three million tweets analyzing over 25 movies. The metrics used for the prediction are the frequency of the updates. This can be safely used to predict values with an error margin of around 0.05% only. Further, analyzing the content of the tweets could help decide the ongoing success. HP calls this tapping into collective intelligence.
Bernardo Huberman, head of the social computing lab at HP told BBC,
the system predicted that zombie film The Crazies would take $16.8m in its first weekend in the US. It actually took $16.06m.
The team forecast that romantic drama Dear John would take $30.71m in its first US weekend. It took $30.46m.
The stats from HP showed that there was a sudden rise in buzz over twitter on the launch week. This predicted the initial success. The buzz from the next week acted like reviews. HP believes if it works for movies, so could it for gadgets and every other product out there.
(Via: BBC Technology)