eMarketer has released a new report which outlines the state of the mobile advertising market in the U.S. According to the agency, the U.S. mobile ad market will be worth $2.6 billion in 2012. Most of the value will be captured by Google, which will account for around 56% of all mobile ad sales, or nearly $1.45 billion. The other two major players are Facebook and Twitter. Surprisingly, despite being much larger than Twitter, Facebook is expected to generate only around half as much in mobile ad revenue.
Twitter is expected to make around $129.7 million, while Facebook will generate $72.7 million. This highlights the problems Facebook is facing in trying to generate revenue by monetizing its massive mobile audience, which has been one of the major factors driving its stock price down.
Eventually, we expect Facebook to figure out the mobile monetization puzzle, and become the second largest player in the mobile ad space after Google. The report expects that to happen as soon as next year.
Facebook could also lead the mobile display ad market by 2014, which is currently led by Pandora and Google. While the mobile search ad market will be dominated by Google completely, the mobile display ad market will be more balanced in terms of players.
The entire mobile ad market is expected to be worth $11.86 billion in 2016. If Facebook figures out a way to capitalize on this, its share price would rebound just as quickly as it fell. Google will try its best to continue to dominate the market though. It’s highly likely it’ll succeed in the mobile search ad space, but not social or display ads.