Analysis of Tevatron Data Favors Low-Mass Higgs Boson; Confirms LHC Observations

A full analysis of the Tevatron data collected over ten years – a mind boggling 500 trillion proton-antiproton collision events – yields a narrower range for the Higgs mass. A new statistical fluctuation, seen with a confidence level of 2.2 sigma, narrows the range of the particle causing the fluctuation to between 115 GeV to 135 GeV. A GeV is a Giga electron Volts or a billion electron volts. These are pretty strong bounds on the mass. Furthermore, the entire regions between 147 to 179 GeV can be safely eliminated. This analysis confirms what the LHC data says – the Higgs is a low mass Higgs with a mass of about 125-126 GeV and the mass range above 141 GeV is eliminated with 95% confidence.

The local significances of the Higgs signature, both from the LHC and the Tevatron. Notice the continuous black line rising way above the dotted black line within the 115 to 127 GeV range. The horizontal light across the graph is the Standard Model prediction probability. The actual observed probability has to be greater than this line.

Excluded ranges and the range to look out for

The data, collected from CDF and DZero detectors of the now-deceased Tevatron, combines well with the LHC data, specifically with that supplied by the ATLAS detector, to restrict the Higgs mass between 115 GeV and 129 GeV. This also provides more confidence to the 3.6 sigma peak announced during the 13th December 2011 CERN broadcast. Kindly check the link here for very specific details of the seminar:

However, this result shows that the LHC and the Tevatron results match and that’s great, but it doesn’t get us any closer to actually finding the Higgs. Of course, if the Tevatron had disagreed, then we would’ve been in serious trouble.

Bottom line

Two things come out of this confirmation: The Higgs is most probably a low mass Higgs, having a mass of about 125-126 GeV. This is pretty interesting in itself, since this is not just the boring Standard Model Higgs, but gives an inkling of the success of supersymmetric theories. Secondly, the “look elsewhere” effect may not be as significant as was previously thought, now that the bounds are tighter. The “look elsewhere effect” takes into account the probability of finding the Higgs at every point within a certain range and not just at a very small interval. This considerably reduces the significance of the observed bump in general. Since the “look elsewhere effect” may decrease its contribution, concentrating on local significances may be quite the right thing to do!

Of course, the game will only be decided by the LHC. We expect to have enough data to pinpoint the Higgs by the end of this year, before the LHC goes into hibernation for 15 months. The game is heating up and getting interesting. Stay tuned…

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