The Higgs search gets hotter and hotter. Recent analysis of old data have raised the confidence level of the Higgs detection from the older value of 3.8-sigma overall to a much healthier 4.3-sigma, as indicated by the two papers sent for publication, one by CMS and the other by ATLAS. The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector group had given the confidence level of 2.5-sigma. Now, with the analysis of more data, they have pushed it up to 3.1-sigma. Remember that a 5-sigma confidence level is what you need for tagging something as a discovery – so 4.3-sigma, though exciting, is not momentous.
There – but not quite there
The results overwhelmingly predict a Higgs mass in the range of 124-126 GeV, which is exactly what scientists had reported on December 13th.
A 5-sigma means that one is 99.99997% sure, while a 4.3-sigma result means that scientists are 99.996% sure that the identified peak is the Higgs peak.
This is just an improvement over the ‘initial’ December announcements by CERN. The data is not new, since the LHC hasn’t been taking any since November, but a more thorough analysis has been done and this is what it says. I suspect that this is as far as CERN can go at the moment with the Higgs confidence levels, and they will require much more data to be completely sure.
The 3.8-sigma confidence levels shouldn’t be taken too seriously. There have been peaks of this confidence level, but they had vanished. Fortunately, this hasn’t.
A new chapter
We should have to wait another year or so before the LHC can give something definite on the Higgs search. Now that the LHC is temporarily closed down for mandatory maintenance efforts, the big bosses, meeting at Charminox, France, are discussing the energy and the luminosity it will be tuned to when it opens later this year. The scale up to 8 TeV in energy is expected, but the luminosity is not yet revealed.